Community Risk Assessment
in partnership with Vision 20/20This page assembles the public-data foundation of a Community Risk Assessment for Grand Blanc City Fire Department. The Vision 20/20 Community Risk Assessment Guide walks through the full process in six steps:
- Identify risks
- Prioritize risks
- Develop strategies and tactics to mitigate risks
- Prepare the CRR plan
- Implement the CRR plan
- Monitor, evaluate, and modify the CRR plan
Steps 1 and 2 start here: incident data, demographics, vulnerability factors, and natural hazard risk across your service area. The remaining steps are local work with your crews and community partners.
Service Area Overview
Your department boundary, station locations, and population density by census tract: where the people you protect live. Switch to block-group resolution for a finer view, and use the sections below to explore community vulnerability, fire and EMS risk drivers, and natural hazards across your service area.
How to use this map: Darker blue shows denser areas (more residents per square mile). Density shapes where call volume concentrates and how much distance separates residents from your stations.
Service area, population, and census tract assignments are based on department boundaries from NERIS Public. Boundary accuracy varies by jurisdiction. View this department’s boundary record or download the polygon as GeoJSON straight from the source (no login).
Reported Incident Activity
Source: NERIS Public Incident Basics; window June 2025 through May 2026; as of the September 2026 refresh
Counts from the NERIS public feed; 6 of 12 window months on file; the first report on the feed is from December 2025. Coverage varies as departments transition from NFIRS to NERIS.
Charts start at December 2025, the department’s first month on the public feed, and run through the last settled feed month; a month at zero means no reports reached the feed. Busiest month on file: December 2025, 14 reports; reporting has held full monthly volume since December 2025. Categories averaging fewer than 5 reports a month are left off the trend charts; counts that small are mostly noise.
By Hour of Day
By Day of Week
Incident distribution over the same window, in the department’s local time. Demand peaks around 9 PM.
Call Composition
Incidents by primary type over the window, following the NERIS incident type hierarchy.
About 36% of reported runs ended with no emergency at the scene: false alarms, good intent calls, and runs cancelled en route.
Prevention Opportunities
Counts from the same window for the NERIS call types that prevention programs target. The public feed shares medical subtypes only for vehicle collisions, so falls show up through lift assists.
| Call type | Reports | Prevention program |
|---|---|---|
| Lift assists | 2 | Falls prevention with older adults; pairs with the 75+ share shown in the EMS Risk section [CDC] |
| Motor vehicle collisions | 1 | Roadway safety: car seat checks, distracted-driving outreach, post-crash referrals |
| Cooking fires (confined) | 3 | Kitchen safety outreach; cooking is the leading cause of home fires nationally [NFPA] |
| Gas leaks and CO | 8 | CO alarm checks alongside smoke alarm visits |
Demographics & Vulnerability
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year (2020-2024 vintage)
What the Demographics Tell You
Demographics drive both sides of your workload: where you need smoke alarm programs, and how many of your calls are EMS. The data below shows who generates the most emergency demand and who faces the greatest barriers when one happens.
Community Vulnerability
How to use this map: Overall Vulnerability is a CDC SVI-aligned composite (0 to 100; higher = more socially vulnerable, shown red), colored on a fixed national scale like the hazard map. Toggle to an individual factor (Poverty Rate, Disability Rate, etc.) and colors switch to a relative scale ranked within your own tracts, so the reddest tracts are always your highest-need ones even if your whole department scores low nationally. Switch to block-group resolution for finer detail.
Community Profile: the four CDC SVI themes
This profile is organized by the four themes of the CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index, the framework most community risk assessments use to describe which residents will need the most help in an emergency. [CDC SVI]
Several factors here reappear in the Fire Risk and EMS Risk sections below, in whichever set the evidence ties them to: fire deaths or EMS demand.
Theme 1: Socioeconomic Status
Income, employment, education, and health-insurance access.
Headline figures from the U.S. Census Bureau ACS; see the table below for the full Theme 1 factor list with sourcing and relevance notes.
| Community Factor | Your Community | Peer AverageiPeer Average. Average across up to 4 peer departments matched on size band, department type, density class, and Census region. Used in the “vs. Peers” column throughout the page. See the methodology page for full criteria. | National Average | vs. Peers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate Share of civilian labor force out of work; associated with higher stress and worse self-reported health (HHS Healthy People 2030) [HHS] |
2.5% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 1.6x lower |
| No High-School Diploma Adults 25+ without a high-school credential; CDC plain-language guidance recommends short sentences and one main idea each to broaden CRR accessibility [CDC] |
8.2% | 5.3% | 10.4% | 1.6x higher |
| Uninsured Rate Residents without health insurance; a barrier to preventive and follow-up care, and a CDC SVI Theme 1 variable [CDC SVI] |
3.4% | 3.5% | 8.4% | ≈ average |
Theme 2: Household Characteristics
Age, disability, family structure, and language: who's most likely to need help in an emergency.
Age drives EMS call volume, with the highest utilization among adults 65 and older and elevated rates among children under 5. It also sets fire-safety education priorities and evacuation-assistance needs. The dark marker on each bar shows the national average.
| Community Factor | Your Community | Peer Average | National Average | vs. Peers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Disability Rate Civilians living with a disability; a CDC SVI Theme 2 variable, and residents who may need evacuation assistance [CDC SVI] |
14.8% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 1.1x higher |
| Single-Parent Households Households with children headed by one adult; family structure associated with vulnerability in emergencies, largely via household resources [Census] |
6.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 1.2x higher |
| Limited-English Households Households where no adult speaks English “very well”; informs CRR materials and outreach in other languages [Census] |
1.7% | 1.2% | 4.3% | 1.5x higher |
Theme 3: Racial & Ethnic Minority Status
Community racial and ethnic composition.
| Community Factor | Your Community | Peer Average | National Average | vs. Peers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minority Population Share of residents identifying as a race or ethnicity other than non-Hispanic White [Census] |
21.0% | 19.9% | 42.7% | ≈ average |
Race and ethnicity are shown here because they're part of the CDC SVI and standard in community descriptions. They are deliberately excluded from the Overall Vulnerability composite above, which is built only from need-based factors (age, poverty, disability, housing, and transportation) so it doesn't use a protected characteristic as a risk proxy.
Theme 4: Housing Type & Transportation
Building type, crowding, vehicle access, and congregate living arrangements.
| Community Factor | Your Community | Peer Average | National Average | vs. Peers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi-Unit Structures Housing in structures with 10 or more units; a CDC SVI Theme 4 variable where shared egress and alarm systems shape evacuation [CDC SVI] |
22.5% | 10.6% | 14.8% | 2.1x higher |
| Mobile Homes Share of housing units that are mobile homes; a CDC SVI Theme 4 variable [CDC SVI] |
0.0% | 4.3% | 5.5% | None reported |
| Crowded Housing Occupied units with more than one occupant per room; a CDC SVI Theme 4 variable [CDC SVI] |
2.6% | 1.4% | 3.5% | 1.9x higher |
| No Vehicle Access Households with no vehicle available; a CDC SVI Theme 4 variable that limits self-evacuation [CDC SVI] |
6.6% | 4.9% | 8.4% | 1.3x higher |
| Group Quarters Residents in nursing homes, assisted living, dorms, or corrections; a CDC SVI Theme 4 variable [CDC SVI] |
1.4% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 1.2x higher |
- 1.4% of residents live in group quarters (nursing homes, assisted living, dorms, corrections), vs 2.4% nationally
- 5.0% are under 5 and 16.0% are school-age (5 to 17), where childcare and schools concentrate
- 9.2% are 75 or older, where assisted-living and nursing demand concentrates
Based on 5-year American Community Survey estimates of resident populations. A named target-hazard list (schools, hospitals, care facilities) takes local data beyond public census sources.
Fire Risk Factors
The Reported Incident Activity section above adds the call counts the department has published through NERIS. The finer questions come from your own incident records: which tracts the calls come from, how fast crews arrive, and what each run takes. Response Analytics measures those from your NERIS data.
What this means for planning: Focus fire prevention efforts on cooking safety (leading cause of home fires), heating equipment safety, electrical hazards, and smoke alarm installation programs.
How to use this map: Colors show relative risk within your jurisdiction (red = highest-need tracts, green = lowest-need). Check the table below for overall levels vs. peers and national averages.
| Risk Factor | Your Community | Peer Average | National Average | vs. Peers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population 75+ Adults 75 and older carry the highest fire-death rate of any age group and are least able to self-evacuate [USFA] |
9.2% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 1.2x higher |
| Population Under 5 Children under 5 have the highest fire-death rate among children and are usually too young to escape a fire without help [USFA] |
5.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | ≈ average |
| Poverty Rate Lower-income and higher-deprivation tracts have significantly higher residential fire rates, tied to older housing, overcrowding, and fewer working smoke alarms [Peer-reviewed] |
8.7% | 8.7% | 12.5% | ≈ average |
| Disability Rate Physical disability is the second-leading human factor in U.S. residential fire fatalities; mobility-limited residents need targeted evacuation planning [USFA] |
14.8% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 1.1x higher |
| Pre-1980 Housing Older housing predates modern electrical and fire codes and is less likely to have hardwired smoke alarms [Census] |
66.4% | 58.5% | 49.8% | 1.1x higher |
| Vacancy Rate Intentional actions are the leading cause of vacant residential building fires (~34%); 53% spread to involve the entire structure [USFA] |
5.3% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 1.3x lower |
| Mobile Homes CDC/ATSDR SVI Theme 4 (Housing Type and Transportation) vulnerability variable; smaller footprint shortens egress time and limits compartmentation [CDC SVI] |
0.0% | 4.3% | 5.5% | None reported |
EMS Risk Factors
EMS calls make up the majority of fire department call volume nationally. The demographics below are the strongest predictors of where that demand comes from in your service area.
What this means for planning: Your community demographics suggest moderate EMS demand. Focus on efficient response protocols and NFPA compliance tracking. Community paramedicine is the usual next step into public health and preventive care.
How to use this map: Colors show relative risk within your jurisdiction (red = highest-need tracts, green = lowest-need). Check the table below for overall levels vs. peers and national averages.
| Risk Factor | Your Community | Peer Average | National Average | vs. Peers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population 75+ Older adults are consistently the heaviest per-capita users of ambulance transport, driven by falls, cardiac events, and chronic-disease complications. |
9.2% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 1.2x higher |
| Disability Rate Residents with mobility, sensory, or cognitive disabilities are more likely to need EMS transport and often require additional on-scene assistance time. |
14.8% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 1.1x higher |
| No Vehicle Access Households without a vehicle face documented transportation barriers to medical care, including missed appointments and delayed visits [Peer-reviewed] |
6.6% | 4.9% | 8.4% | 1.3x higher |
| Uninsured Rate Uninsured adults are about three times more likely than continuously insured adults to have an unmet medical need due to cost (CDC NHIS) [CDC] |
3.4% | 3.5% | 8.4% | ≈ average |
| Poverty Rate Poverty is correlated with poorer health outcomes and reduced healthcare access; a recognized social determinant of health [HHS] |
8.7% | 8.7% | 12.5% | ≈ average |
| Below 150% Poverty Share below 150% of the federal poverty level; CDC PLACES uses this exact threshold to model chronic-disease prevalence [CDC] |
18.8% | 13.8% | 20.1% | 1.4x higher |
Natural Hazard Risk
What this means for planning: With a risk score of 84.5 (Very High nationally), cold wave is your leading natural hazard. Focus on cold-exposure emergency response and warming center partnerships. Run proactive wellness checks for vulnerable populations during extreme cold.
Top Hazards in Your Service Area
Algorithmic top 5 by life-safety impact, plus regionally critical hazards for MI (shown with their NRI scores as-is, no adjustment). Life-safety loss uses FEMA’s Value of Statistical Life ($13.7M per fatality or 10 injuries); total loss adds FEMA’s building, population, and agriculture loss estimates. NRI methodology · Source: FEMA NRI v1.20 (Mar 2023)
| Hazard | Risk Score | Rating | Life-Safety Loss $/yr |
Total Loss $/yr |
Learn more |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cold Wave TOP LIFE-SAFETY HAZARD | 84.5 | Very High | $359K/yr | $360K/yr | NWS cold safety |
| Tornado | 86.2 | Very High | $292K/yr | $507K/yr | NOAA SPC |
| Heat Wave | 33.6 | Relatively Low | $34K/yr | $35K/yr | NWS heat safety |
| Lightning | 53.9 | Relatively Moderate | $18K/yr | $20K/yr | NWS lightning safety |
| Strong Wind | 81.2 | Very High | $12K/yr | $91K/yr | NWS wind safety |
| Winter Weather | 31.7 | Relatively Low | $19/yr | $2K/yr | NWS winter safety |
How to use this map: Colors show absolute national risk levels (red = Very High nationally, green = Very Low nationally). These are objective hazard comparisons across all U.S. communities.
Historical Disaster Declarations
Your county has experienced 3 FEMA disaster declarations in the last 10 years, and 7 declarations in the last 25 years.
5 most recent declarations shown, sourced from OpenFEMA. If your most recent listed declaration is older than expected, OpenFEMA lists no newer county-level declarations for your county.
| Date | Type | Title |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-27 | Biological | COVID-19 PANDEMIC |
| 2020-03-13 | Biological | COVID-19 |
| 2016-01-16 | Toxic Substances | CONTAMINATED WATER |
| 2005-09-07 | Hurricane | HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUATION |
| 2004-06-30 | Severe Storm | SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING |
CRR Outreach Profile
These factors shape your Community Risk Reduction (CRR) outreach approach (different prevention messaging and communication channels, and a different inspection cadence) without necessarily indicating elevated fire or EMS risk.
How to use this map: The table below gives one department-wide rate per factor; the map shows which tracts drive it, so outreach (mailers, inspections, station open houses) can target where it will do the most good.
| Outreach Factor | Your Community | Peer Average | National Average | vs. Peers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wood Heating Wood and other solid-fuel heating; outreach focus: annual chimney inspection and cleaning, hearth screens, three-foot clearance from anything that can burn [USFA] |
0.2% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 2.4x lower |
| Kerosene / Fuel Oil Heat Liquid-fueled and portable space heaters; outreach focus: three-foot clearance, turn off when leaving the room or going to bed, CO and ventilation awareness [USFA] |
0.0% | 0.3% | 3.8% | None reported |
| Bottled / Tank LP Heat Bottled, tank, or LP gas heating; outreach focus: tank leak checks, regulator and connector inspection, CO alarm placement [Census] |
0.0% | 3.8% | 4.8% | None reported |
| Renter-Occupied Share occupied by renters; outreach differs from owner messaging: landlord coordination on smoke alarms, tenant-focused checklists, multilingual notices [USFA] |
39.0% | 24.2% | 35.1% | 1.6x higher |
| Overcrowding More than one occupant per room (Census/HUD threshold); shapes outreach where multiple residents share sleeping space and egress paths [HUD] |
2.6% | 1.4% | 3.5% | 1.9x higher |
| No Internet Access Households without home internet may miss web-based emergency alerts, telehealth, and outreach; favor radio, mailers, and door-to-door channels [Census] |
5.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | ≈ average |
Peer Comparison
Departments similar to yours in size, type, density class, and region. Peer benchmarks put your community risk profile in context and support “demonstrated need” narratives in grant applications.
| Department | State | PopulationiPopulation. Tract-based estimate, used here so every department in this table is measured the same way. The summary above uses the block-group-fitted “Est. Population” figure. | Risk ScoreiComposite Risk Score. FEMA NRI’s composite index combining all 18 hazards: Expected Annual Loss × Social Vulnerability ÷ Community Resilience, population-weighted across your tracts. Individual hazards may score higher than the composite; the composite reflects total expected impact across all hazards. This is the same score behind the “NRI Risk Rating” band shown at the top of the page. FEMA methodology. | 65+ % | Multi-Unit % | Stations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Blanc City Fire Department (You) | MI | 6,810 | 42.4 | 18.9% | 22.5% | 1 |
| Village Of Holly Fire Department | MI | 5,141 | 44 | 16.6% | 14.6% | 1 |
| Rossford Fire & Rescue Department | OH | 6,863 | 34.7 | 19.4% | 6.2% | 1 |
| York Center Fire Protection District | IL | 5,810 | 44.3 | 17.2% | 48.9% | 1 |
| Utica Fire Department | MI | 4,079 | 39.4 | 24.7% | 23.5% | 1 |
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Connect Your Own Incident Data
This page is built from public data. It describes the community you protect: who lives there, what hazards they face, and how many calls the department has reported through NERIS. Your own incident records hold the operational detail: where calls cluster, how long they tie up crews, and how response holds up in your highest-risk neighborhoods. Connect your NERIS feed and Response Analytics tracks all of it, including NFPA benchmarks and the results of your CRR work.
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This free community risk profile is part of the Discovery Data Hub, a partnership between Vision 20/20 and Arborlook Insights to keep risk data in the hands of the fire service.